By Smith Hopkins[1] Introduction In this proposal I will ask three crucial questions regarding the future of Churches of Christ in the Mid-South, particularly in Shelby County, TN. Before I consider these crucial questions, there is one more I hope you’ll consider. If not you, then who? Our movement is unique in the religious landscape in the U.S. We are not a denomination, but neither are we isolated. We are an interdependent fellowship of sister congregations across the regions. This means that our local congregations are autonomous—shepherded by elders and equipped by the gospel teaching of ministers. We have no denominational headquarters or regional supervisors who guide our plans, strategies, and initiatives. In other words, each church local church tends its own flock and sows its own field. But each local church is also called to think much bigger than this. Local churches are the torch bearers for the saving gospel of Jesus Christ. That means if local leaders are not considering how to awaken city-wide, regional, and national renewal for Churches of Christ, then no one is. Perhaps there is not a single person in all the world who cares about Churches of Christ in your neighborhood and city more than you. So, what can you do? Praise God, we are not left as orphans. By the power of God’s Spirit, we are capable of bringing restoration to the Mid-South. When we look back at the earliest church in the New Testament, we see that God grew his kingdom from a city, to a region, to the nations. And he did it through local leaders in local churches—leaders like you in churches like yours. If not you, then who? Now to the three questions.
1. What has happened to the number of adherents in Churches of Christ since 1990? In the last three decades, from 1990-2018, Churches of Christ have declined by -238,728 adherents in the U.S (-14.2%).[2] Over the same span, the number of congregations declined by -1,132 (-8.6%). Meanwhile, the population of the U.S. grew by over +78 million people (+31.5%).[3] Combine our decline with our country’s growth, and it means that the adherence rate for Americans in Churches of Christ plummeted by -34.8% in just 28 years (see Figure 1). We are losing ground. Quickly. Similar trends have been happening in many cities and regions around the country, including the Mid-South. Consider Shelby County, TN, the largest population center in the Mid-South region. What has happened to Churches of Christ here since 1990? In the last three decades, from 1990-2018, Churches of Christ have declined by -6,519 adherents (Figure 1). That’s a startling loss of -28.5% of our adherents before you even factor in population change. Over the same span, the number of congregations declined by -6 (-8.7%). Meanwhile, the population of the county grew by over +110,000 people (+13.4%).[4] Combine our decline with our county’s growth, and it means that the adherence rate in Shelby County for Churches of Christ dropped by -37% (Figure 2). The decline has been worse in Shelby County than even the declining national average. Here, too, we are losing ground. Quickly.[5] Based on the available data, we know that in the last three decades the percentage of Americans and of Shelby County, TN residents adhering to Churches of Christ has declined by more than a third. But why? What’s causing our decline? 2. What are the possible reasons? I believe diagnosing this problem is a very important step in our pursuit of solutions. Please allow me to add a few suggestions to the ongoing conversation.[6] I think the major reasons for our decline in in the Mid-South fall under three broad areas: A) cultural, B) congregational, and C) missional. A. Major cultural changes in the U.S. since 1990 likely contributed to our decline.[7] I see three areas where these changes have been felt acutely in Churches of Christ.
B. Common congregational problems likely contributed to our decline. Based on general observations of numerous once-growing churches that underwent significant decline at some point since 1990, I believe there are three common congregational issues that have been factors in our decline. While subjective and anecdotal, I expect broad agreement with the identification of these as factors.
C. I believe the greatest cause of the decline of Churches of Christ is a loss of missional identity. Here are three areas I believe reflect this problem.
3. What, if anything, are we to do about it? How could we begin to reverse the trends in Churches of Christ in the U.S. and the Mid-South? I believe identifying the contributing factors is a vital beginning point, as I’ve tried to do above. The solutions to our decline may lie within the reasons for our decline. If we want different results in the next 30 years than in the last 30 years, I believe we must do three things: A) cultural adaptation, B) congregational repentance, and C) missional renewal.
But where will these churches who are willing and able to do this come from? Conclusion I began with an important question, If not you, then who? I’d like to close in a similar vein. If not us, then who? I believe, and perhaps you do as well, that the religious landscape of the U.S. needs Churches of Christ now, as ever, to call attention to fundamental, often neglected truths. Among these: 1) the authority of God in Scripture, 2) the saving power of God’s grace in baptism, 3) the necessity of faith lived out in discipleship, and 4) the simple life of the church modeled after the earliest Christians. But more than a need, there is also an enormous opportunity lying dormant in Churches of Christ. I do not believe there is reason for Churches of Christ to panic. We are not at risk of fading away anytime soon. Even after the large losses in the last three decades, we have more than 11,000 congregations across the country which could be used by God for His mission. Can you imagine what might God do through us in the next three decades? Can you imagine what difference it might make if just in Shelby County, the Churches of Christ committed to reaching our changing communities with a renewed investment in local mission? The Mid-South remains a global stronghold for Churches of Christ, with multiple grade schools and universities, training grounds for ministers, as well as hundreds of churches. Shelby County alone has the 6th highest adherents among all U.S. counties, with over 60 congregations. What might Shelby County look like in 30 years if, by God’s Spirit, we began to renovate this stronghold through church planting? Why couldn’t there be a wave of restoration flowing from our churches as we sent out ambassadors into the entire region? Who knows what could happen past that? I do know this: in the New Testament, the movement of the church of Christ began in one city (Jerusalem), which spread gospel renewal to an entire region (Judea and Samaria), and then launched the global movement of the kingdom of God to the ends of the earth. Perhaps God will do something similar beginning right here in the Churches of Christ in Shelby County, to the Mid-South, to the ends of the earth. If not us, then who? [1] I am just a local minister in a local church of Christ who loves our fellowship and our region. I am not a data expert, a theologian, or a church growth specialist. As such, please consider this proposal with grace. [2] Adherents refers to the baptized members of a congregation, their children, as well as other regular attenders. All population data and data for Churches of Christ in this resource for 1990-2010 comes from The Association of Religion Data Archives, see http://www.thearda.com/rcms2010/. The 2018 data for Churches of Christ comes from Carl Royster, Churches of Christ in the United States, 2018 ed., (Nashville, TN: 21st Century Christian, 2018). See also https://www.21stcc.com/pdfs/ccusa_stats_sheet.pdf. [3] The Census Bureau estimated the 2018 U.S. population at 327,167,434, an increase of 78,457,668 from 1990. See https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045218, accessed 2/10/2019. [4] The Census Bureau estimated the 2017 Shelby County, TN population at 936,961, an increase of 110,631 from 1990 (2018 not yet available). See https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/shelbycountytennessee,tn/ PST045218, accessed 2/10/2019. [5] It is worth comparing Churches of Christ to another arm of the American Restoration Movement, the Christian Churches/Churches of Christ. From 1990-2010, Christian Churches added +239,972 adherents in the U.S. and +882 in Shelby County, TN specifically. See http://www.thearda.com/rcms2010/. [6] I appreciate the Christian Chronicle for reporting on this decline many times in the last decade, as well as proposing causes in the ongoing conversations. For example, see Bobby Ross Jr., “165,000 Fewer Souls in the Pews: Five Questions to Consider,” March 2, 2015, accessed 2/10/2019, available at https://christianchronicle.org/165-000-fewer-souls-in-the-pews-five-questions-to-consider/. For a more detailed analysis of the growth and decline of Churches of Christ than I have provided, as well as a list of suggested causes, see Stanley E. Granberg, “A Case Study of Growth and Decline: The Churches of Christ, 2006-16,” in Great Commission Research Journal Vol. 10 No. 1, Fall 2018, pg. 88-111. [7] Bobby Ross Jr., “Churches of Christ in Decline: U.S. Culture to Blame?” April 1, 2015, accessed 2/10/2019, available at https://christianchronicle.org/church-in-decline-u-s-culture-to-blame/. [8] James Emery White, The Rise of the Nones (Grand Rapids, MI: Baker, 2014). [9] Which Granberg says, “is no longer a rural movement.” Granberg, 99. See also Bobby Ross Jr., “Is There a Rural-Urban Divide in the Church?” April 1, 2007, accessed 2/10/2019, available at https://christianchronicle.org/is-there-a-rural-urban-divide-in-the-church/. [10] According to the Commercial Appeal, the Memphis Metro area experienced the 6th highest population decrease due to migration of all U.S. cities from 2010-2017. Michael B. Sauter, “Residents Leaving Memphis Puts City Among Top-10 in U.S. for Population Loss Due to Migration,” Commercial Appeal, July 5, 2018, accessed 2/10/2019, available at https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/news/local/2018/07/05/memphis-residents-leaving-population -loss/760416002/. [11] Number of children is estimated based on the difference between adherents and members. Granberg, 97. Further evidence of the decline is children is the declining enrollment of college age freshman adhering to Churches of Christ attending a university affiliated with our movement. From 2000 to 2018 this number declined by -55%. Bobby Ross Jr., “Christian Universities Face ‘Extremely Difficult’ Recruiting Outlook,” December 18, 2018, accessed 2/10/2019, available at https://christianchronicle.org/christian-universities-face-extremely-difficult-recruiting-outlook/. [12] Granberg, 97. [13] Granberg, 91. [14] Thom Rainer, “Ten Rules of Thumb for Healthy Churches,” March 4, 2013, accessed 2/10/2019, available at https://thomrainer.com/2013/03/ten-rules-of-thumb-for-healthy-churches/. [15] Stetzer adds, “If we honestly believe our movement is the place to land theologically, then we need to support it by planting churches.” Ed Stetzer and Daniel Im, Planting Missional Churches, 2nd ed. (Nashville, TN: B&H Academic, 2016), 324. [16] “The church planting rate is so low…that it does not register a significant percentage.” Granberg, 99-104. [17] The Churches of Christ in the United States directory tracks changes in adherents based on the age of churches. From 2015 to 2018, all churches over 30 years old declined on average. The fastest growing churches on average were the youngest, most recent church plants. See also Granberg, 100-101, who shows that 79% of our churches are over 40 years old. He also traces several implications of this reality. [18] Timothy Keller, “Why Plant Churches?” 2002, accessed 2/10/2019, available at http://download.redeemer.com/pdf/ learn/resources/Why_Plant_Churches-Keller.pdf. [19] Ed Stetzer notes, “We believe that churches that plant become healthier in the process.” He points to recent LifeWay research showing that churches who get involved in their early years in either 1) planting daughter churches, 2) financially supporting church plants, or 3) investing in leaders of church plants all experienced a higher average attendance year over year compared to those that did not. Ed Stetzer, “9 Reasons an Established Church Should Plant Churches,” April 26, 2016, accessed 2/13/2019, available at https://www.bhacademicblog.com/9-reasons-an-established-church-should-plant-churches/. [20] As Keller writes, “The vigorous, continual planting of new congregations is the single most crucial strategy for (1) the numerical growth of the body of Christ in a city and (2) the continual corporate renewal and revival of the existing churches in a city. Nothing else…will have the consistent impact of dynamic, extensive church planting.” Keller, 1.
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CHAUNCEY Smith HopkinsThis blog focuses on topics related to Christianity and ministry. Archives
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